88. Percentage increase in purchasing power of WFP voucher beneficiaries

88. Percentage increase in purchasing power of WFP voucher beneficiaries

VERSION

V3.0 - 2026.03 — Existing

INDICATOR CODE

88

TECHNICAL OWNER

SCD-Delivery Assurance

INDICATOR TYPE

Country Level Outcome Indicator

INDICATOR CLASSIFICATION

Complementary

INDICATOR SCOPE

Programme specific

APPLICABILITY

The selection of this indicator is recommended against the following sub-activities in CSPs logframes that involve value voucher interventions under which WFP has contracted retailers. Selection of the below sub-activities will NOT trigger the mandatory selection of this indicator:

1. General Distribution (GD);

2. Prevention of acute malnutrition (PREV)

3. Management of moderate acute malnutrition/undernutrition (MAM)

4. Food assistance for assets (FFA);

5. Food assistance for training (FFT)

UNIT OF MEASUREMENT & ANALYSIS

Percentage - Market Level

DEFINITION

The percentage increase in purchasing power of WFP voucher beneficiaries is determined by measuring the difference between prices at contracted shops and market prices. This measurement serves as an indicator of how much more or less beneficiaries can afford to purchase redeeming their value vouchers (of determined transfer value) in contracted retailers compared to purchasing the same items in general markets. It quantifies the extent to which the prices at contracted shops deviate from the prices in the broader market, thus influencing the beneficiaries' ability to purchase more or less quantities of their essential need items.

Below are some key terminologies for this indicator:

RATIONALE

The Retail engagement and Market Development framework require the use of indicators to measure the impact of interventions in market systems and supply chains. This framework emphasize the importance of analyzing the underlying market systems, understanding the different actors and linkages involved, and measuring changes in market efficiency, competitiveness, resilience, inclusiveness, and sustainability.

Considering WFP's role in preparedness and response to shocks through market systems and local supply chain intelligence data, a vital aspect is measuring whether WFP beneficiaries can acquire all their essential needs items from the contracted retailers, as intended in the program's design.

This measurement encompasses not only the availability of essential items but also the purchasing power of beneficiaries.

We enable beneficiaries to access essential items at fair, preferential and affordable prices, thereby enhancing their purchasing power and their overall food security via WFP-contracted shops. This rationale supports the need for indicators to measure the availability and purchasing power of essential items. Moreover, ensuring the fair price of essential items in the markets where WFP operates serves not only WFP beneficiaries but also benefits the wider population served by these markets.

DATA COLLECTION TOOL

Retailer prices will be monitored through the Retailer Performance Monitoring Evaluation (RPME) survey which Country Offices may adapt while retaining the mandatory questions.

The market price will be retrieved from VAM’s Dataviz.

The full RMPE survey can be found at this link: RMPE Guidance.

SAMPLING REQUIREMENTS

Only WFP contracted retailers should be surveyed. Each retailer branch should be surveyed quarterly, following RPME sampling guidelines (Retailer Performance Monitoring and Evaluation (RPME) E-Guide | Rise 360), and in alignment with the Minimum Monitoring Requirements (MMR).

INDICATOR CALCULATION FOR REPORTING

This indicator is calculated by using the following steps:

1. Calculate the average price deviation for each essential commodity at a specific shop by determining the difference between the market price and the price collected at the contracted shop. Sum up these deviations for each commodity and divide the total by the number of shops where that commodity is available.

   ΔPrice deviation =

   

   Price deviation of each essential commodity at a given shop =

   Market Price collected by VAM – Price collected at WFP contracted shop through RPME

   where n is the number of shops where this item is available.

2. Divide the price deviation obtained in the previous step by the average market price collected by RAM for each commodity. This step helps to normalize the deviation as a percentage.

   % Price deviation compared to market price =

   

3. Compute the total average of the percentage of price deviation for the entire essential needs basket. This average percentage reflects the overall measure of the purchasing power of WFP beneficiaries at the contracted shops compared to the market.

   The indicator is obtained at the end as the Average of % price deviation compared to market price, for example;

The indicator, percentage increase in purchasing power is equal to (10-2+25+3)/4 = 9%.

DATA ENTRY AND DISAGGREGATION IN CORPORATE SYSTEMS

Values are recorded in the logframe. Each value has a reporting combination which is created based on:

• Sub-activity

• Country

• Target group

Follow-up value is reported as one overall value. It is recommended that data be further disaggregated in reporting outside of COMET by the following dimensions:

Specific commodities:

This indicator can be broken down into specific commodities to identify which commodities contribute most to the deviation and reflect abnormalities.

Local markets:

The deviation can be broken down to smaller admin levels.

BASELINE

Baselines are established only once for the entire CSP.

They remain fixed for the full CSP period unless otherwise specified.

The baseline will be based on the value calculated from the first RPME data collection at the onset of CBT and vouchers operations (first cycle).

TARGET SETTING

Annual targets:

Annual targets should aim to achieve zero or positive value in the deviation between market prices and prices in WFP-contracted shops, but this may be related to context analysis.

End of CSP target:

CSP targets should be set at zero or a positive value.

FREQUENCY OF DATA COLLECTION

The recommended frequency of shop data collection is at least quarterly, as this indicator is derived from data collected during the Retailer Performance Monitoring Evaluation (RPME). Analysis and data entry should be conducted twice a year.

The collection of market price is conducted by VAM on a monthly basis.

INTERPRETATION

Positive values imply savings and indicate that the price at the contracted shop is lower than the market price, consecutively enabling beneficiaries to purchase more essential items when redeeming their vouchers and with certain amount of transfer value. It allows beneficiaries to satisfy their demand or even buy other items. On the other hand, negative values indicate higher prices at the contracted shops, implying that WFP beneficiaries have to spend more, resulting in a reduced ability to purchase an adequate number of essential needs. And it indicates a potential violation of the contractors’ obligations to sell items to WFP beneficiaries at prevailing market price or cheaper.

REPORTING EXAMPLE(S)

In Ethiopia, the percentage of purchasing power for WFP beneficiaries experienced a significant increase from 3.6% in 2022 to 25% in 2023. This notable increase signifies that WFP contracted shops in the region to sell essential need items at prices lower than the prevailing market rates. As a result, beneficiaries are now able to redeem a greater quantity of essential goods, hence their purchasing power has increased.

INDICATORS COLLECTED & ANALYSED AT THE SAME TIME

The following indicators may be reported along with this indicator:

• 87. Percentage of essential need items available to beneficiaries in the targeted markets where WFP operates

COMPLEMENTARY QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

Beneficiary interviews:

In the RPME beneficiary survey, beneficiaries answer open-ended questions such as:

• Whether the price displayed is the same as the price charged at the counter;

• Give additional comments;

During RPME shop monitoring, retailers are asked to:

• Explain the price increase/volatility for the commodities;

• If retailers are facing issues in terms of prices throughout the supply chain;

Community feedback mechanism (CFM)

The need for further qualitative research can be assessed and carried out as needed.

DECISIONS DATA CAN INFORM

1. Whether the CO needs to pay more attention to the selection of retailers.

2. Whether the CO should notify current contractors or discontinue certain contracts.

3. Whether price issue needs to be addressed through a renegotiation or other market development activities.

4. Whether the modality of assistance is the most appropriate one.

VISUALIZATION

This indicator can be visualized as a time series to track the evolution of purchasing power over time.

LIMITATIONS

It is important to consider that the average is sensitive to outliers, especially in markets where the number of shops is small and that the average does not account for price volatility across time. In countries inflicted by hyper-inflation, the lag between the market and price collection could reduce the reliability of this indicator. The essential needs items surveyed at the shop might be of various brands or quality. This has an impact on the gap between the shop price and the market price collected by VAM.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Retailer Performance Monitoring & Evaluation Guidance